Evergreen Lake 32 Mile Prediction

I am running the Evergreen Lake 32-Mile trail race this Sunday in Hudson, IL. I did the race 2 years ago (here's that race report), but it's changed a little and now is supposedly a 32 mile race (instead of 50K). I finished that 50K in a time of 5:30. Can I repeat that achievement? Run faster? Slower?

Temperatures will be about the same (except no rain). The course should be in good shape. Unfortunately, I'm not in that great of shape. I'm healthy, injury-free, but I haven't been running much since the August Howl at the Moon ultra. I hope to break 6 hours and maybe come close to that 5:30 finish time of 2 years ago. If I was a betting man, I'd predict a finish time of 5:45 for me. This is my first of three consecutive ultras for this fall racing season. I'm treating it as a hard training run. Great opportunity to get in an extra long run with friends--and full aid station support!

My friend Gregg is also running. Maybe we'll start together at an easy pace. Gregg seems to be in good shape lately so I may have a hard time keeping up with him!  I plan on starting out easy, then progressively move faster as the race goes on and other runners tire. No heart rate monitor for this race, but I'll have my trusty GPS watch and should have a sense of how far I've gone, my average pace, and how far it still is to the finish line. If I hit 26 miles and feel OK, I'll try to push the last 6 miles.  If I get all techy, I may even set my Garmin "virtual partner" to a 10:45 pace (which would predict a 5:44 finish for 32 miles). I'd be happy with that finish. Real happy.

In my mind, if this goes well, it will jump start my fall training and set me up for two more good races: Farmdale 30 miler on October 12 and McNotAgain 30 miler on November 9. Followed by a relaxing marathon stroll with my brother in Seattle on December 1.

Boston Qualifier in Seattle or Champaign?

This year I knocked off one of my biggest lifetime running goals...sub-24 in a 100-mile trail race! It felt great. Still does. Unfortunately, I've been in a funk ever since that race. Leading up to the April 100 miler, I also set a new 50-mile trail personal best. Since the 100 miler, nothing. Now I enter the fall racing season with no real goals. I have three trail ultramarathons scheduled (Evergreen Lake, Farmdale, and McNotAgain) and one road marathon (Seattle). I've been toying with the idea of a Boston Qualifying time. For a 45-49 year old male, that means a 3:25 marathon. That's a 7:49 pace for 26.2 miles. Very doable. But not today. Not next month either. Maybe November or December...if everything goes well in training over the next few weeks. I MIGHT be able to run a 3:25 marathon in Seattle. I'd have to push hard and injury would be a significant possibility. But, after December, I'd have all winter to recover! Maybe it would be worth the risk?

Or, I could get in serious endurance training all fall (three ultras and one marathon), and set my goal BQ race in the spring--specifically the Illinois Marathon in Champaign, IL (10 miles from home) in late April. With a solid winter aerobic base, I could train hard in March and April and be ready for a BQ attempt in Champaign. Weather is a wildcard...late April in central Illinois can be hot and humid or cold and windy. I'd hate to train hard for weeks and weeks and end up with a failed attempt due to weather. Hmmm...a Boston qualifier in Seattle or Champaign?

I have the Evergreen Lake 32-Mile trail race this weekend. If all goes well, and I feel capable of jumping into renewed training immediately, I may just go for the Seattle attempt. If not, I'll try to set an intermediate goal (maybe personal bests at both Farmdale and McNotAgain ultras?) and wait until April for my BQ race. A BQ in front of the hometown crowd? Sweet.

For now, no decisions. But a certain number is sticking in my head...7:49. I think many of my future training runs will be at 7:49 pace. Hopefully, they'll feel easy. If not tomorrow, then the next day...or the day after. Eventually. 7:49.

90 Ultras & Marathons?

Last post, I mentioned that one of my proudest running achievements was clocking 303 miles in one week. That accomplishment may be the greatest moment in my 15-year running history. If not #1, it's right up there. Finally breaking 24 hours for a 100-mile trail race is near the top too. And another achievement keeps growing...and may become another one of my "proudest moments" in Chris' running history.

So, what running accomplishment is getting close to the top of my awesome achievement list? I run lots of ultramarathons...and a few marathons. So far, I have completed 86 marathons or ultramarathons (70 ultras, 16 marathons). By the end of this year (4 months to go) I will have hit 90 ultras/marathons. My first was way back in May of 1999. I think by the end of 2014 I could reach 100 lifetime ultras/marathons. To me, that's quite an achievement. And I'm still setting a few personal records! Just this year, I set 50-mile and 100-mile PRs. Hope to break my marathon PR within the next year.

Here is my schedule for the rest of 2013:

• Sept 15: Evergreen Lake 32 miler
• Oct 12: Farmdale 30 miler
• Nov 9: McNotAgain 30 miler
• Nov 30: Seattle Ghost marathon
• Dec 1: Seattle marathon

Yes, I may do two marathons in two days in Seattle! Why not? I'm tentatively thinking a Boston qualifier at the Seattle Ghost marathon, then the next day, a cool-down Seattle marathon pacing my brother to his first finish! If I do all five of these races, I'll have 91 total ultras and marathons and only 9 more needed in 2014 to reach 100 lifetime ultras/marathons. Once I get that 100th ultra/marathon, I will have an achievement to be proud of...and I'll keep building on that milestone!