Quadfecta Of DNFs!

Our local trail running group has a series of four free trail ultras that we put together and call the "Free Ultra Quadfecta." It consists of:

1. January Riddle Run 28 miler
2. July Backyard Ultra ("Last Man Standing")
3. October Allerton Trail 29 miler
4. December Clinton Lake Winter Solstice 30 miler

I participate in all of them, and in the past have finished them, but not this past year. Going back to last December, I am now 0-4. Stopped at 20 miles at Clinton Lake, Riddle Run, and Last Man Standing (Backyard Ultra), then 18 miles at Allerton Ultra. DNF x 4. A special "Quadfecta"! Now have the Clinton Lake Winter Solstice on December 21. Will that be my turning point? Can I finish those tough 30 miles? We'll see! I'll be at the start and I'm confident I can get my standard 20 miles...but 30 miles is a lot farther than 20 miles! 

I have the Allerton Trail race next weekend (5.7 miles), then training for the Clinton Lake Winter Solstice ultra! Good times with friends. If reasonable weather, then maybe 30 miles is possible. 

Free Ultra Quadfecta: Race #3

Our local trail running group has always liked to participate in fun social runs. Especially if they are on trails over a long distance. And free. Basically, free trail ultras! We've had a couple of formal "fun ultras" but now we have a Free Ultra Quadfecta that pulls them together and offers extra awards. Still free. The third event in the Quadfecta is this weekend:

1. January Riddle Run (28 miler)
2. July Backyard Ultra ("last man standing")
3. October Allerton Trail Ultra (29 miles)
4. December Clinton Lake Winter Solstice 30 miler

The first two events are at the Lake of the Woods trails (4 mile loop, gentle hills). Third on the rolling Schroth trail at Allerton Park (~5.75 mile loop). The final one at the hilly Clinton Lake northfork trail (10 mile loop). 

It's now time for the Allerton Trail Ultra on Saturday, October 5. Five loops of the Schroth loop. About 29 miles. No fees, no formal registration, no official awards. Some ice water at the start/finish of each loop. Otherwise, bring your own aid...and share with fellow runners. I look forward to getting in a good long run, but doubt I'll reach that ultra status. Not trained well enough and have had a cold for about a week. Hopefully the cold is gone by this weekend, but my training is still sub-par. If I get 4 loops (~23 miles) I would be surprised and happy. Three loops (~17+ miles) would be a good target. 

I'll be ready for the last event in the series--Clinton Lake Winter Solstice 30 miler on December 21. It's the hilliest, longest, and hardest of the four events. And the weather tends to be...cold. 

My VO2 Max Lab Results

Not me, but this was the set-up.

I finally had a real VO2 max lab test. The University of Illinois Kinesiology department offers lab testing for $100. I had several estimates of my current VO2 max, but didn't know if any of them were valid. Which was the most accurate? Coros watch? Garmin watch? Recent 5K race results? My "somewhat official" Cooper Test on the track? Here are how those measures predicted my VO2 max:

• Coros watch: 44
• Recent 5K race: 43
• Garmin watch: 48
• Cooper Fitness Test: 49.8

The real lab test result? VO2 max = 43.1 

I was disappointed. Thought it would be in the high 40s, maybe 48 or 49. Turns out my recent 5K race and the Coros watch estimate were the closest! Garmin was way too positive. Still not sure why the Cooper Fitness test was so high. It seemed like the most official predictor when reading the research literature. Maybe I measured the distance incorrectly? I'll try another Cooper Test in the next month. And another Coros Fitness test too! 

Here are other statistics from the test:

• Max HR = 179
• Aerobic threshold (V1) = 141 HR
• Anaerobic threshold (V2, estimated) = 161 HR
• VO2 max = 43.1 mL/kg/min
• Absolute VO2 max = 3.44 L/min
• Velocity at VO2 max = 9.5mph (~6:19 min/mile)
• Called it quits at 10mph (6:00 pace) and 374 watts!

The test starts easy enough with a warm-up and nice chatting about the process with the lab technician. Then the treadmill is paused and the mask gets placed over your face and connected to a tube so they can measure O2 and CO2 as you breathe. Now it was real! Back to easy running, then they start cranking the speed every 2 minutes until you give up (treadmill was always level for me, but if needed, they can increase the incline). Think I could have pushed a little longer, but that last 2-minute segment at 10mph/6:00 pace was brutal. Everything seemed OK until around 9.5 mph. When moved to 10mph, my legs were pumping, I was breathing hard and could feel the burn. Done.

If nothing else, I now have a good sense of my power (270W) and HR (141) at V1 (aerobic threshold, top of zone 2). My Polar arm HR band seemed to track the lab's chest strap within 1-2 beats the whole time. Good to know it's accurate. 

The university lab testing was fun. I would do it again in 6-12 months. I truly believe I can increase my number with more speed work. According to their charts, I am in the 90th percentile for my age/gender. I want more! 

Mahomet 5K Race Prediction

Tomorrow morning I am set to race the Mahomet 5K. It's my local race. Start is less than one mile from my home. Easy and relaxing morning. No parking hassles. I can even warm-up, then return to my place to change clothes/shoes and head to the starting line. No excuses. Well, the weather often sucks--too warm, too humid, too sunny. But the weather is the same for everyone. I usually head out too fast for the first mile (downhill) and end up suffering around mile two after a long uphill. Mile three is slightly rolling hills plus a track finish. I know the course. I know my weaknesses. If I can hold back in the first mile, then hang steady for mile two, think I can have a strong finish including a fast ~400m on the high school track. The plan is to follow my Stryd pod predicted power target (~311 Watts). So, what do I predict for a finish time? 

• Last year race finish: 22:28
• Coros prediction: 22:56
• Stryd prediction: 23:33
• Runalyze prediction: 23:57
• VO2 max (49.8) prediction: 20:00

The VO2 max of 49.8 is based on a Cooper Fitness test a couple weeks ago. That test gave me a 49.8 which equates to 20:00 finish time for a 5K. No chance of that happening tomorrow! I have a real VO2 max lab test next week so I'll see how close the Cooper Test was to my real value. I believe I can beat both the Runalyze and Stryd predictions. I'll break 23:00. And Coros predicts 22:56. Think I can beat that too. Can I beat last year's time? Yes! I'm hoping for a 22:30 or better...guess that means 22:28 or better! 

Weather does not look great. Forecast for 7am is 70F, sunny, and 90-95% humidity with slight breeze. Prefer cooler temps, less humidity, and overcast skies. Oh well. Last year I was 16th overall and 2nd in age group (50-59). This year I am going to place better...how about 1st in age group and 15th overall? 

RACE UPDATE: Finished in 22:48. 1st in age group, 12th overall. I am happy with my placing, but not finish time. Also lost my Stryd foot pod. Found it after searching for 30 minutes after the race. It was broken (run over by cars). I still have my old original Stryd pod. I'll use that for now. Might buy a new one.