Mahomet 5K Race Time Prediction

I'll be running the Mahomet 5K race this Saturday. It's my local race. I've run it many times (it was my first race I ever ran--25+ years ago). What is my expected finish time this year? Here are my race times for the last 5 years:

• 2025 = 24:52
• 2024 = 22:47
• 2023 = 22:28
• 2022 = 22:20
• 2021 = 23:30

Last year (2025) I was still recovering from pneumonia. It was an anomaly. Here are predicted times based on my current running data and software:

• Runalyze = 25:53
• Amazfit (GPS watch) = 22:45 
• Stryd run pod = 21:48

Recent 5K race times:

• Parkrun on July 25 = 23:49
• Parkrun on July 18 = 26:00 (very hot)
• Parkrun on June 27 = 23:55 

Based on the above statistics and my gut feeling, I think Amazfit is close to the correct prediction. I think I can run around 22:45. Probably a littler slower since hilly course and will be warm and rainy on Saturday morning. My prediction is 23:00. I'll do much better than last year (24:52) but not quite as good as in 2024 (22:47). We'll see!