Mahomet 5K Race Time Prediction

I'll be running the Mahomet 5K race this Saturday. It's my local race. I've run it many times (it was my first race I ever ran--25+ years ago). What is my expected finish time this year? Here are my race times for the last 5 years:

• 2025 = 24:52
• 2024 = 22:47
• 2023 = 22:28
• 2022 = 22:20
• 2021 = 23:30

Last year (2025) I was still recovering from pneumonia. It was an anomaly. Here are predicted times based on my current running data and software:

• Runalyze = 25:53
• Amazfit (GPS watch) = 22:45 
• Stryd run pod = 21:48

Recent 5K race times:

• Parkrun on July 25 = 23:49
• Parkrun on July 18 = 26:00 (very hot)
• Parkrun on June 27 = 23:55 

Based on the above statistics and my gut feeling, I think Amazfit is close to the correct prediction. I think I can run around 22:45. Probably a littler slower since hilly course and will be warm and rainy on Saturday morning. My prediction is 23:00. I'll do much better than last year (24:52) but not quite as good as in 2024 (22:47). We'll see! 

May Saw Little Work, Lots of Racing!

In late April I ran my first 1-mile race. It went well!  Ran a 6:30 mile at age 60. Not too shabby for this old ultrarunner. On May 1, I retired from my job of 30+ years. I had no immediate vacation plans, so why not race every weekend? So I did. Here are my 5k race results for 5 Saturdays in May (I count Parkrun 5Ks as races since I run them hard):

• May 2: 21:53 actual Kerby Derby race (323 W)
• May 9: 22:53 parkrun (322 W)
• May 16: 24:18 tempo run on treadmill (281 W) 
• May 23: 23:51 parkrun (301 W)
• May 30: 23:52 parkrun in Pittsburgh (313 W)

Some variation, but fairly consistent results. I need to pace myself better from the start using power (watts) as my guide. I tend to go out too fast! Surprised the tempo run was as fast as it was at only 281 watts. Clearly I can do about 320-325 W for a 5k race. Just need to do that steadily from start to finish rather than zooming off at 330-350W at the start, then slowing to barely over 300W at the end. 

Running will suffer while the World Cup unfolds over the next 5 weeks. I'll get in another "out of town" parkrun in Seattle as I catch a soccer match or two. Or five. While watching soccer, I need to get in some long runs for my 4 upcoming ultramarathons: Backyard Ultra in July, Howl at the Moon 8-hour in August, Limestone Rocks 8-hour in September, and Allerton Free Ultra in October. Yikes! Then in early November I have a planned fast half-marathon. I should have the endurance by November, just need tom hold a touch of speed...and not get injured. Hey, I'm retired so I should be older and wiser. I can do this. Really, I can. 

My First 1-Mile Race!

Today, actually tonight, I run my first 1-mile race! It's on roads, not track. The run is part of the Illinois Marathon race series. I've done the marathon and half-marathon, but not the 5K, 10K, or 1-mile races. After this year, guess I should run the 5k and 10k to have experienced them all. They are on different days, so I could do both 5k and 10k next year! Hmmm...

Since I've never run a 1-mile race, or trained for such a short event, I am at a loss trying to determine a reasonable race goal. I think 7:00 would be easy. 6:30 very hard. Maybe 6:45 is a good goal? According to my Stryd pod, my predicted finish time is 6:39. Garmin doesn't predict mile times. MacMillan Running predicts 6:46 (based on recent 5K race time). Looks like 6:45 is a good estimate. I'm pretty sure the world record is safe (3:43 for the mile). 

UPDATE: I ran 6:30 for the mile race! My A-goal achieved. Was first in age group (60-69). 26th out of 284 finishers. I'm happy. Think I'll do this race every year!