Howl at the Moon 2014: Lucky #13?

This Saturday will be my 13th Howl at the Moon 8-Hour ultra. That's a lot of time circling that 3+ mile loop course! Last year I finally broke 500+ lifetime Howl miles. Here are my up-to-date Howl at the Moon race statistics (12 completed races):

Total Races: 12
Low: 33.9 miles (2010)
High: 47.06 miles (2006, 2008)
Total Miles: 510.83
Average Miles: 42.57
Best Placing: 12th (2005)
Worst Placing: 99th (2010)

Will 2014 be average? My best? Worst?

Weather is forecast to be low of 65, high of 82 with a slight chance of showers. Probably humid. Some sun, some clouds. Not the best weather, but it could be worse.

My training has been "less than ideal." Last long run was in June. I had a knee injury about a month ago. The knee is better and I've been getting in good weekly miles. Still no long runs, but at least regular miles. I'm healthy. Not ready for a personal record, but maybe an "almost average" effort?

Here are my goals for this year's race:

"A" Goal = 43 miles. Just beat my average Howl mileage. I'm not feeling much above average lately, so even this modest goal is a stretch. If it comes, I'll take it and be happy. In terms of placing, I'd like to think I could be top 20% of the 300+ field running the race.

"B" Goal = 40 miles. This is always my default basic goal for Howl at the Moon. It's not easy, but always doable. Push hard enough, don't give up, and you'll break 40 miles. This might get me top 25% of the starters. Not too bad. This is also where I beat Coach Jeff. He'll be right around here at the end of the day.

"C" Goal = 34 miles. Just above my worst effort ever. I don't want a new "personal worst" for this race. I'll easily achieve this goal. Heck, I could walk this race and break 34 miles. Right? This low mileage would probably be around the middle of the pack for all starters.

At the end of Saturday, I hope to have 550+ total Howl at the Moon miles. Next year, I'll break 600 miles. I'm on my way to 1,000 lifetime Howl miles!