Clinton Lake 30 Miler: My Finish Time?

Clinton Lake Ultra elevation profile

The Clinton Lake 30-Mile Ultra is this Saturday (March 23). For the first time in a very long time, I am actually running the race rather than volunteering (or race directing). This is the same race I founded in 2007. It's on the 10-mile north fork trail at Clinton Lake. Three laps of the hilly trail around the lake gets you an ultra finish. Easy enough, right?

It would be easy enough if I was trained for an ultra. My longest run over the last 6 months has been 13 miles. I'm healthy and injury-free, but not ready for 30 miles. Not even 20 miles. A fast 10 miles would be a great tempo effort. My goal race for this spring is the Illinois half-marathon on April 27. I'm on target for the half-marathon in 5 weeks. Not on target for an ultra in 1 day!

So, what is my predicted finish time? Or, if a DNF, how far will I get before dropping out? I see three scenarios playing out this weekend:

1. I slowly make my way around that darn lake three full times and finish the ultra. It would be my 105th ultra/marathon finish. If this happens, it would be a long day. Run, jog, hike. Lots of walking and talking to fellow back-of-the-pack runners. 
2. I do two loops and get in a nice long run of 20 miles. See friends at aid stations, chat with fellow runners, and complete my longest run in more than a year. Yikes. About time I get in a real long run. 
3. I run one loop, 10 miles, but do it fast. Perfect tempo-style run in preparation for the half-marathon in late April. Develop a little speed and also endurance. I'm certainly capable of 10 miles. Maybe I could hang with the leaders for one loop? Or the "almost" leaders? 

Honestly cannot say what I'm planning. I'll see what race morning brings. If I feel really good I may try for a fast 10 miles. If I feel OK, I'll shoot for an easy 20 miles. If I get 20 miles, maybe I'll just finish the damn thing! Maybe I can be DFL (dead fucking last). That's better than DNF, right?

Post-race update: I finished one loop in 1:40. Not bad. Went out too hard and faded the last 3 miles. Lesson learned. It was still a good DNF. Time to prep for the Illinois half-marathon. More long runs, more tempo runs.