Mahomet 5K Race Prediction

Tomorrow morning I am set to race the Mahomet 5K. It's my local race. Start is less than one mile from my home. Easy and relaxing morning. No parking hassles. I can even warm-up, then return to my place to change clothes/shoes and head to the starting line. No excuses. Well, the weather often sucks--too warm, too humid, too sunny. But the weather is the same for everyone. I usually head out too fast for the first mile (downhill) and end up suffering around mile two after a long uphill. Mile three is slightly rolling hills plus a track finish. I know the course. I know my weaknesses. If I can hold back in the first mile, then hang steady for mile two, think I can have a strong finish including a fast ~400m on the high school track. The plan is to follow my Stryd pod predicted power target (~311 Watts). So, what do I predict for a finish time? 

• Last year race finish: 22:28
• Coros prediction: 22:56
• Stryd prediction: 23:33
• Runalyze prediction: 23:57
• VO2 max (49.8) prediction: 20:00

The VO2 max of 49.8 is based on a Cooper Fitness test a couple weeks ago. That test gave me a 49.8 which equates to 20:00 finish time for a 5K. No chance of that happening tomorrow! I have a real VO2 max lab test next week so I'll see how close the Cooper Test was to my real value. I believe I can beat both the Runalyze and Stryd predictions. I'll break 23:00. And Coros predicts 22:56. Think I can beat that too. Can I beat last year's time? Yes! I'm hoping for a 22:30 or better...guess that means 22:28 or better! 

Weather does not look great. Forecast for 7am is 70F, sunny, and 90-95% humidity with slight breeze. Prefer cooler temps, less humidity, and overcast skies. Oh well. Last year I was 16th overall and 2nd in age group (50-59). This year I am going to place better...how about 1st in age group and 15th overall? 

RACE UPDATE: Finished in 22:48. 1st in age group, 12th overall. I am happy with my placing, but not finish time. Also lost my Stryd foot pod. Found it after searching for 30 minutes after the race. It was broken (run over by cars). I still have my old original Stryd pod. I'll use that for now. Might buy a new one.