Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Accuracy of My Howl Predictions

About a week before the Howl at the Moon 8-Hour race I made predictions about the top 30 finishers--including myself at #30.  Well, the race is over.  How'd my predictions go?  Did 29 people beat me?  Were they the 29 I predicted?  The world wants to know!

First, I finished in 19th place.  That's 11 spots better than my prediction.  Good for me, not good for my prognosticating.  Here is a list of my original predictions with the actual placing in parentheses (and the +/- indicating how far above or below my prediction they fell).  If someone didn't start the race, their name is crossed off.

1. Brandon Janosky (28th, -27) 
2. Tim Collins (5th, -3)  <= darn good pick
3. Tommy Doias (4th, -1)  <= excellent pick!
4. Scott Colford (1st, +3)  <= darn good pick
5. Mike Crowder (dns)
6. Mike Wendell (dns)
7. Chris Friedman (27th, -20)
8. Steve Jones (9th, -1)  <= excellent pick!
9. Mark Bowman (32nd, -23)
10. Matthew Condron (3rd, +7)
11. Janet Stroud (dns)
12. Carl Benton (26th, -14)
13. Dorn Peddy (dns)
14. Jennifer Eichelberger (8th, +6)
15. Paul Wilkerson (37th, -22) 
16. Brandon Smith (12th, +4)  <= darn good pick
17. Kathleen Yarger (dns)
18. Chad Braun (11th, +7)
19. Daphne Donald (10th, +9)
20. Don Frichtl (13th, +7)
21. Nancy McCarty (21st, 0)  <= PERFECT!
22. Ryan Krows (16th, +6)
23. Andrea Stack (31st, -8)
24. Brian Kuhn (65th, -41)  <= terrible pick
25. Mike Gossman (24th, +1)  <= excellent pick!
26. Curtis Wilson (54th, -28)
27. Travis Sheets (dns)
28. Gary Davidson (33rd, -5)  <= good pick
29. Jeff Fago (92nd, -63)  <= terrible pick
30. CHRIS the Blogger! (19th, +11)

Biggest miss on the + side was Chris the Blogger moving from predicted 30th to actual 19th place (+11). Biggest miss on the - side was Jeff Fago moving from predicted 29th to actual 92nd place (-63).

Some good predictions there, and a few big misses too. One perfect pick (Nancy McCarty). Thanks Nancy...your check is in the mail.

2 comments:

Ian said...

Next up Chris' EPL forecast

Chris said...

Man City
Man U
Chelsea
Liverpool