Clinton Lake Race: Predict My Finish

Clinton Lake Race

In four days, on Saturday morning, I'll attempt the Clinton Lake 30-Mile Trail Race. It's familiar terrain. I train there. The race is familiar too. I started it. None of that matters when you toe the starting line. You never know what'll happen. With the extreme winter, I haven't had solid training. Very few long runs. To put it bluntly, I'm unprepared. Really unprepared. I have no business even attempting this race. In this year's previous race attempts, I'm 0-3. I'd rather not end up 0-4. So, how do I think I'll do? How do you think I'll do?  Here are three possible scenarios.

Scenario #1: My first run at Clinton Lake in the last 3 months was this past Sunday. I did one 10-mile trail loop in 1:46. That's an OK time. Nothing fast, but not extremely slow either. If things go well this weekend, I might be able to average 2-hour loops and end up with a 6 hour finish time. Maybe even 5:59. Yeah, let's say 5 hours, 59 minutes is the best I can do. I'd be happy with that finish time. I'm thinking lap splits of 1:50-2:00-2:09 = 5:59. Doable, right? Maybe. Maybe not. Plus, pushing this hard will bring risk of injury.

Scenario #2: I haven't run much and I'm ill prepared to race 30 miles on hilly trails. I should take it easy and just finish. Seriously control my instincts and go with the back-of-the-pack runners and walkers. Hang out at aid stations, enjoy the day, socialize. It could be a very easy long run. I can imagine 2:30 splits for each loop with a finish time of 7:30. We'll under the 8-hour cut-off. If things go south, I still have a 30 minute cushion. I finish the day without injury and feeling strong. Not a bad idea, eh?

Scenario #3: I do not finish, DNF. It's possible. I might push too hard and get injured. I might be going along at a reasonable pace, get too tired, and feel that 20 miles is enough. I might "enjoy" myself so much at aid stations that I miss the cut-off and "finish" after 8 hours. I can also see several situations where I drop out at 20 or 25 miles. I've heard that canoe aid station (aka, "The Iron Bridge Bar & Grill") is pretty alluring. It's siren song may capture me and never let me go! Lounge chair, beer, veggie burgers, fire pit, good music, fun time...

So, what do you think? 
Do I run well and achieve a 5:59 finish time?
Take it extremely easy and finish around 7:30?
Or do I get another DNF and go 0-4?

UPDATE (March 29, 2014): Finished the race in 5:42! Sweet.

0-3 for the Year: Now What?

I've had three bad results so far this year: DNF, DNS, DNF. This coming weekend I'll make my fourth race attempt at the Clinton Lake 30-Mile Trail Run. I know this race and its course better than any other in the country. It's "my race" (founded it in 2007) and my primary long run training ground (no better place to get in 20-mile hilly trail runs). Unfortunately, this year I haven't run the Clinton Lake trail much. To be more precise, I have not run a single mile on the trail this year! Too much snow and ice. And I've become too lazy. Today, Jeff and I are going out to mark the course. The plan is for Jeff to re-paint markings on the trees while I run the course. He'll probably get 5.5 miles marked while I run 10. Next Friday he'll finish the marking job (without my "help"). This may be the first time the trail has been completely free of snow and ice. Hopefully not much mud either. We'll see. It'll be nice to once again run that trail again. Next weekend I'll run three of those 10-mile loops.

So where does this leave me for the rest of the year? I'm currently stuck at 89 ultra/marathons. I planned on being at 92. I'm pretty sure I'll finish Clinton Lake next Saturday. That'll get me to 90 ultra/marathons completed. After that I have the Illinois Marathon. I'm not ready for that. I don't do much road running and I do even less road racing. Yikes, best start hitting the roads between now and April 26. That's OK. The pressure is off, I just need to finish. It'll be a fully-supported long run. And hopefully my 91st ultra/marathon.

After the Illinois Marathon it's simply time to run. I have my challenge with Jeff to run 40 miles/week while he loses 40 pounds. I need more long runs. More hills. More miles. I may take my running to Europe and hit the Scottish highlands. Why not? It's time for a vacation to celebrate my wedding anniversary, why not spend it in Edinburgh? OK, that's technically in the Scottish "lowlands"--but it's still got plenty of fell running. Sounds like the kind of new terrain that could re-energize my running. After some European tourism and running, I can come back to the States and try the "Run Under the Stars" 10-hour race in KY (June 7). Sounds like a plan!

PS: Here's my evening run on the Clinton Lake trail. It was in great condition. No snow. No ice. Only a few "soft spots" (mud). In 6 days I just need to be able to do THREE of these 10-mile loops!

40 for 40

On the 4-hour drive back from LBL in KY last weekend, Jeff (the running friend who DNF'd with me) and I chatted about our respective running fitness and what we needed to do going forward to be really fit and ready to race. Generally, I'm happy with my current fitness. Jeff not so much. And he thinks I can do better too. "Untapped potential" is what he calls my current state of running affairs. I've always been able to run fairly well with minimal mileage. Even in ultramarathon races. Including 100 milers. I suppose if I actually knocked out regular high mileage weeks, I could be better. I usually average 25-30 miles per week. Rather low for an ultra runner! Maybe I can do better?

Jeff's running problem is not his weekly mileage. He runs plenty of miles every week. His done that for years and years. His issue? It's his weight. He has a few too many pounds to haul around the streets and trails. You can only run so fast if you are overweight. And racing is extremely hard with a few extra pounds...and if it's more than "a few" pounds, then you'll truly struggle in races. Jeff needs to lose weight. He knows it. But the motivation hasn't been there to make a lasting change.

My problem? Didn't think I had one, but Jeff says it's lack of consistent moderate miles every week. According to Jeff, I should be running 40+ miles per week. Week after week. Mostly aerobic fat-burning, with about 20% in the faster zones (marathon pace and faster). I suppose that's a reasonable plan. If I want to run marathons and ultras, I should run more miles. I've known that for some time, but haven't been motivated. How might that change?

So, Jeff needs to lose weight and I need to run more miles. Simple, right? How could we motivate each other? On that drive back from KY, Jeff proposed a challenge. 40 for 40. Jeff would lose 40 pounds and I'd run 40 miles per week. I could work up to that 40 miles, then hold it for a minimum of 8 weeks. During that time period (about 10-12 weeks), Jeff would lose 40 pounds and sustain the weight loss. Hmmmm...40 pounds for 40 miles. 40 for 40. Let's do it!

Land Between the Lakes: 0-3

This past weekend I went down to Grand Rivers, KY and ran the Land Between the Lakes trail marathon. Sorta. I "dropped down" to the 23K race. That's a nice way of saying I DNF'd the marathon. That makes me 0-3 this year on ultras and marathons! Sorta Riddle Run 28 miler (DNF at 20 miles), Lake Mingo 28 miler (did not start), LBL Marathon (DNF at 14.5 miles). Sad.

So what went wrong? Nothing. I felt great from start to finish. Went slow and steady following my running buddy Jeff. The conditions were wet, with quite a bit of mud, but no ice. Basic trail running slop! Nothing wrong with that for a seasoned trail runner. So why stop? Because Jeff stopped. That's why. No bad feelings. I could have gone on for another 11 mile trail loop and joined Jeff a couple of hours later at the finish line. But why? I still got in a nice trail run--I'll call it a "long run" since it lasted 3+ hours--why push for another 2 hours? I was able to finish feeling extremely good and also get back home for an early dinner.

If the trails were in better shape, smooth and dry, Jeff and I would have finished our marathon. I would have hung with him and completed with a 5:30+ marathon time. Slow and steady. Good fat burning. Nice aerobic effort. I still got that doing almost 15 miles...and I proved to myself that I could be disciplined. I wanted to speed up and pass Jeff many times. My best count is 37. Yeah, 37 times I started to pick up the pace and stride out...then I'd settle down and remember what this race was really about...easy running on a beautiful trail with a running friend and no set finish goal time or distance. Just running. Nothing wrong with that. This weekend taught me to be a disciplined runner with patience.

I have a lot of training to do before my next ultra attempt: Clinton Lake 30 on April 29. Unfortunately, I don't have a lot of time...race starts in 18 days! That's OK. Worst case is I start and drop out after 10 or 20 miles. I'm fine with 0-4.

Feel Better with Races on My Schedule

I now have three solid races on my schedule over the next 8 weeks. It feels good. When the races are too far out, or I'm not registered yet, there's a constant angst about whether I'll be ready. Should I even register? Try for a new personal best? Use them as training runs?

This coming weekend, March 8, I have the Land Between the Lakes trail marathon in KY. I'm not even close to being trained and ready for this race, but that's OK. It's a race I've done several times (marathon and 60K). I feel comfortable running those KY trails. I'll run my own race. Since I'm not well trained, I'll go down with running buddies and hang with the mid-to-back-of-pack runners and simply enjoy the sights. It'll be a great training run. Hopefully it'll get me a little closer to being ready for my next race.

After the KY trail marathon, I have only three weeks to my next race: Clinton Lake 30-Mile trail race in central IL. This is the race I founded and directed for several years. I doubt I'll be ready to go, but it'll be fun getting back on those memorable trails in a race situation. Again, very comfortable. I could run these hilly trails at night...and I have on several occasions! Lots of old friends. Great past adventures. Outside of my local trails, this is my main training ground. Perfect place to "tune-up" for my next race.

A month after the Clinton Lake 30, I'll be running the Illinois Marathon. Yikes. I haven't run a road marathon in years. Not appealing. At the end of last year, I thought I might be ready to attempt a Boston Qualifying time here. Not going to happen. Maybe next year. This year's race will be a "test" of how I can hold together on 26.2 miles of roads. Geeeez...it's not going to be easy. Still, it'll be a comfortable setting and I'll see tons of friends at aid stations and on the Champaign-Urbana roads. I'll run through both towns and all around the university campus, including right by my old workplace...and my new one. Pretty cool. If it goes well, then I'll start dreaming about a BQ time in the next 6-12 months. Hope...it does a body good.

If these three races go alright, I'll up my total ultra/marathons completed to 92. I'll ride that momentum to several summer races. Most likely Kettle Moraine 100K, Kennekuk 5-hour Cats and Dogs, and Howl at the Moon 8-hour. Hopefully have 95 ultra/marathons by the end of summer. Then a packed trail racing fall with Evergreen Lake 32, Farmdale Ultra, Tecumseh Trail Marathon, and McNotAgain 30 miler. Could have 99 after McNotAgain. Where will #100 occur? When? I'll let you know after I get #99.

I'm not ready for spring racing, but I still feel better having three good races on my schedule. And many more planned. Wish me well.